* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL012012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 22 24 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 50 43 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 66 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.6 23.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 96 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 93 86 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 53 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 85 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 55 25 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 327 318 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.7 32.6 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.0 75.7 74.2 73.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. -2. -14. -23. -31. -35. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -2. -10. -17. -23. -26. -30. -34.