* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL022012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 29 32 35 40 43 45 48 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 15 12 13 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 94 119 160 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 19.3 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 75 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 71 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 70 56 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 47 52 50 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 148 71 41 -106 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 16.4 16.2 14.9 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.3 85.7 85.2 85.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 9 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31.