* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL022012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 31 35 36 42 49 54 57 60 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 31 35 31 40 47 52 55 58 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 21 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 13 12 13 14 16 18 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 21 12 7 3 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 7 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 81 108 171 111 131 251 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 15.9 15.9 16.0 27.8 17.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 70 69 66 130 68 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 67 67 63 117 64 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 13 11 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 71 67 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 76 81 81 71 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 69 96 94 83 57 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 122 129 58 1 52 104 -13 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 16.9 16.3 15.9 16.3 16.8 15.7 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.7 86.2 84.8 84.3 84.6 84.3 85.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 9 3 2 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 16. 22. 29. 34. 37. 40. 44.