* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP032012 06/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 67 65 54 51 50 47 44 43 40 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 67 65 42 33 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 63 65 66 62 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 38 38 39 48 47 40 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 8 6 5 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 1 0 -1 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 315 291 279 239 238 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 160 161 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 13 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 71 74 75 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -15 -10 -9 -1 3 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 65 84 85 98 123 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 345 326 242 164 42 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.4 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.7 95.0 95.2 95.7 95.8 96.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 5 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):328/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. -1. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -15.