* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL032012 06/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 42 41 40 39 38 38 38 35 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 42 41 40 39 38 38 38 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 30 30 32 37 43 48 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 32 31 34 36 33 25 24 25 21 19 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 51 35 27 28 32 9 15 23 18 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 0 -4 -5 -6 -5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 38 34 40 54 53 171 178 135 95 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.4 22.9 23.0 22.8 22.0 21.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 93 94 95 93 89 90 91 88 87 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 82 82 80 75 77 79 78 77 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.7 -56.5 -55.9 -56.8 -56.1 -56.6 -55.5 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 47 45 43 34 34 40 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 17 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 46 51 50 36 41 32 52 101 175 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 50 45 37 45 2 -42 18 49 45 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1019 881 778 675 632 614 699 835 990 932 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.7 36.7 37.8 38.5 39.3 39.0 38.3 37.8 38.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.6 63.2 62.7 61.8 60.7 59.3 57.2 54.3 51.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 9 4 7 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 27/ 17 CX,CY: 8/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 3. 1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3.