* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 34 39 50 59 68 75 79 84 89 93 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 34 39 50 59 68 75 79 84 89 93 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 34 38 42 48 54 61 V (KT) G05R 21 25 28 32 33 32 33 36 42 39 44 47 53 SHEAR (KT) 11 17 14 13 17 16 15 14 20 8 12 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 2 0 7 8 9 14 9 SHEAR DIR 97 110 113 115 84 70 36 27 356 322 342 325 5 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 142 144 143 143 138 141 145 149 153 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 121 125 127 122 121 118 120 124 129 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -51.5 -51.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 13 13 12 16 12 16 12 20 14 19 700-500 MB RH 78 73 74 73 67 64 61 55 51 46 39 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 14 18 18 23 24 27 30 30 30 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 86 60 84 100 85 91 95 86 100 104 80 63 59 200 MB DIV 56 47 70 90 83 91 74 63 95 23 39 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 86 174 206 277 341 402 367 222 178 189 222 258 186 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.7 26.0 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.2 87.2 86.8 87.1 87.8 88.0 88.1 89.1 90.2 91.7 93.6 95.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 6 7 4 4 6 5 6 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 8. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 30. 39. 48. 55. 60. 64. 69. 73.