* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 38 47 58 65 73 78 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 38 47 58 65 73 78 77 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 32 36 40 45 50 53 56 V (KT) G08R 18 25 29 28 26 30 31 31 36 34 33 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 12 12 15 19 19 18 23 15 24 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 1 -3 1 -1 0 0 5 6 10 7 13 SHEAR DIR 55 118 129 122 86 94 52 34 22 19 14 46 42 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 138 141 141 144 134 134 136 137 140 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 124 124 122 131 114 113 113 114 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 13 12 14 11 16 12 17 14 18 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 74 69 61 54 55 51 51 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 15 16 17 20 22 23 25 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 88 107 103 90 100 86 108 117 109 105 74 200 MB DIV 60 38 68 84 92 74 89 69 75 37 45 12 -14 LAND (KM) 81 48 125 227 258 429 346 273 346 314 354 334 326 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.0 22.7 23.6 23.9 25.4 26.8 27.3 26.6 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 88.2 87.6 87.3 87.6 87.1 86.7 87.3 87.2 87.6 87.7 88.3 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 6 4 12 5 4 2 2 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 27. 38. 45. 53. 58. 57. 56. 55.