* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 34 39 49 58 66 72 77 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 34 39 49 58 66 72 77 77 76 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 36 39 42 44 34 V (KT) G10R 17 23 25 30 28 31 32 34 37 36 35 38 34 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 13 15 18 18 17 22 16 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 3 0 2 0 7 0 11 5 16 SHEAR DIR 93 107 110 120 89 90 61 56 30 39 17 63 69 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.6 15.5 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 141 144 142 136 131 123 125 117 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 121 124 126 123 116 113 101 104 98 64 67 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -51.8 -52.0 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 14 12 15 12 15 11 16 12 14 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 72 68 66 62 56 54 54 51 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 17 17 20 21 24 27 29 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 95 75 85 96 86 73 85 65 91 100 101 113 67 200 MB DIV 61 43 59 72 87 85 86 68 101 78 73 32 28 LAND (KM) 37 127 173 244 320 439 377 238 166 155 120 86 -39 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.6 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.5 87.2 86.8 87.0 87.2 86.7 85.8 85.5 85.5 84.7 84.1 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 6 6 5 7 0 2 3 7 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 11. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 29. 38. 46. 52. 57. 57. 56. 54.