* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 27 28 28 27 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 32 33 33 32 30 28 25 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 21 29 37 35 34 33 36 31 31 31 25 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 18 21 14 12 7 5 9 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 -1 4 10 1 5 1 12 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 96 104 84 91 97 62 25 354 56 63 N/A N/A SST (C) N/A 5.1 26.6 26.7 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A 64 123 121 120 110 103 97 97 97 99 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A 64 111 105 103 97 90 83 85 86 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 6 4 7 8 6 9 9 12 11 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 44 48 41 41 42 42 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 17 13 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 53 39 35 18 -7 -23 2 -21 -4 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 31 32 35 43 27 -11 -6 -7 11 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -76 181 292 358 457 584 643 731 807 689 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.3 30.6 30.7 30.5 31.0 31.6 32.1 32.9 35.0 37.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 81.8 79.5 78.0 77.1 74.6 71.5 70.2 68.6 66.7 64.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 15 18 10 9 12 10 5 11 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 66/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -18. -18.