* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 29 30 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 33 33 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 19 31 35 34 36 37 46 39 39 37 39 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 25 24 17 19 19 20 7 10 32 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 12 4 3 13 1 5 1 4 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 106 107 88 86 76 55 39 69 72 69 N/A N/A SST (C) N/A 23.8 26.6 26.7 26.1 24.9 23.7 23.4 23.2 18.5 8.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A 99 123 122 116 107 99 94 97 81 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A 91 111 107 102 98 89 83 87 77 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 5 3 7 8 7 9 8 8 5 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 44 44 44 46 38 40 43 45 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 21 21 22 23 22 19 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 53 45 36 21 7 -15 -15 -15 -18 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 38 35 38 20 -8 -29 -2 35 45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -5 236 303 396 513 785 886 749 439 64 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.8 31.0 30.9 31.8 33.5 34.8 37.1 41.4 46.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 81.2 78.8 77.2 75.8 72.2 67.7 65.2 62.7 59.7 52.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 18 13 13 19 18 11 21 30 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 66/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -22. -23. -25.