* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL042012 06/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 37 34 33 33 32 33 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 37 34 33 33 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 39 39 40 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 31 31 28 29 27 27 29 27 26 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 17 11 6 7 12 15 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 3 6 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 109 124 94 104 186 211 212 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.0 24.6 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 120 115 109 104 101 98 104 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 107 102 96 90 86 86 92 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 10 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 42 39 38 39 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 15 12 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 0 0 -17 -24 -25 -28 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 2 32 18 4 -20 1 29 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 396 492 506 551 619 702 748 743 622 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.9 31.3 31.6 31.9 33.1 35.7 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.7 75.2 73.7 72.2 71.0 69.6 68.2 66.6 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 12 9 5 11 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 82/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2.