* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 71 74 75 68 56 45 34 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 71 74 75 68 56 45 34 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 67 67 66 64 60 54 48 42 36 30 V (KT) G00R 33 34 35 37 39 41 41 39 42 38 33 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 9 5 7 4 9 10 7 9 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -2 3 1 3 -3 2 7 6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 193 191 169 150 116 102 41 126 147 127 128 115 109 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 25.9 24.9 23.9 23.4 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 130 129 122 113 103 98 100 97 96 101 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 70 69 65 62 55 50 46 39 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 23 24 24 26 27 26 24 21 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 0 1 1 -3 7 5 -1 4 -2 2 -5 200 MB DIV 57 53 57 61 56 48 71 12 -17 -27 -18 -20 -1 LAND (KM) 996 1005 1052 1090 1141 1262 1369 1556 1698 1924 2200 1876 1456 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.8 115.0 116.0 117.2 119.4 121.5 124.1 126.7 130.0 133.4 137.1 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 12 13 14 17 17 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 13. 1. -10. -21. -32. -43.