* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 75 81 84 76 61 47 34 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 75 81 84 76 61 47 34 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 67 69 70 70 68 63 57 50 42 35 28 V (KT) G02R 31 32 35 38 39 45 50 43 42 37 32 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 8 5 5 2 10 9 12 7 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -1 3 0 1 0 4 6 10 8 3 SHEAR DIR 210 186 165 164 170 99 50 124 163 190 219 172 60 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 25.3 24.2 23.7 24.0 23.3 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 133 132 129 117 106 101 105 98 97 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 72 69 65 61 54 49 44 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 25 26 28 30 28 25 21 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 6 14 12 7 11 12 8 9 5 9 -9 200 MB DIV 64 55 46 62 78 75 80 21 -4 5 -22 -21 -18 LAND (KM) 994 1042 1100 1143 1160 1290 1373 1553 1753 1959 2241 1905 1519 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 15.9 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.7 114.8 115.8 116.7 118.9 121.1 123.8 127.0 129.9 133.5 136.9 140.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 17 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 6. 0. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 29. 21. 6. -8. -21. -32. -41.