* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 71 73 72 64 50 37 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 71 73 72 64 50 37 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 67 67 64 60 54 48 41 34 28 23 V (KT) G03R 34 34 36 36 36 34 40 41 41 35 33 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 9 14 13 9 2 8 11 10 11 15 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 -1 -4 1 -2 1 1 6 11 11 4 -8 SHEAR DIR 178 176 126 113 104 96 275 145 159 130 125 99 93 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.1 24.0 23.4 23.2 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 128 125 114 103 98 96 96 94 96 102 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 71 68 64 61 53 48 43 38 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 23 24 24 25 27 26 25 21 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 17 22 16 10 31 12 10 1 1 4 -7 200 MB DIV 66 78 75 98 111 56 58 -3 -36 -27 1 -7 11 LAND (KM) 995 970 973 1022 1105 1235 1382 1551 1757 1999 2064 1633 1209 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.7 114.8 116.2 117.8 120.2 122.4 124.7 128.1 131.3 135.2 139.3 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 14 11 11 14 15 18 19 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. -0. -5. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 9. -5. -18. -31. -43. -54.