* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP972012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 58 65 69 75 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 58 65 69 75 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 37 40 V (KT) G03R 21 20 21 23 25 23 32 32 39 49 52 52 53 SHEAR (KT) 10 3 7 9 6 3 5 7 6 6 7 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 3 0 -2 -5 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 271 281 230 253 241 222 215 233 276 339 331 325 299 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 153 158 157 158 155 151 146 140 134 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 71 70 70 68 72 68 65 62 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 17 21 22 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 23 18 4 -7 -5 -7 4 0 30 39 46 200 MB DIV 77 56 49 27 23 18 20 54 96 59 49 45 30 LAND (KM) 519 454 529 606 689 762 857 922 930 905 978 1034 992 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.9 12.4 13.6 14.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.7 94.2 95.2 96.5 99.5 102.2 105.1 107.4 109.4 111.9 114.0 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 15 13 15 13 12 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -21. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 21. 23. 27. 27. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 33. 40. 44. 50. 52. 50.