* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP972012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 49 57 65 69 76 78 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 49 57 65 69 76 78 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 41 V (KT) G06R 19 18 20 22 24 22 30 32 40 46 47 55 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 12 10 5 6 7 8 7 4 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 -3 1 5 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 240 246 262 275 254 227 238 264 301 273 334 297 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 154 157 155 157 157 153 147 140 135 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 11 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 69 69 71 69 69 68 65 62 63 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 15 17 21 24 27 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 25 15 7 3 8 12 9 15 39 59 59 200 MB DIV 95 95 75 70 40 40 38 69 107 86 73 40 26 LAND (KM) 596 642 681 722 790 826 848 885 879 887 938 1036 1081 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.1 12.3 13.6 14.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.1 94.2 95.0 96.6 98.8 101.3 104.3 106.8 108.9 111.4 113.8 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 12 14 11 13 15 13 13 13 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 22. 29. 27. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 32. 40. 44. 51. 53. 50.