* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 63 67 69 70 69 63 47 38 28 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 60 63 67 69 70 69 63 47 38 28 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 65 65 62 60 57 53 47 41 35 30 V (KT) G09R 37 34 30 33 34 37 43 41 33 35 34 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 4 2 2 6 11 11 14 15 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 -1 0 1 -1 -4 2 4 2 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 188 216 221 187 158 120 61 134 163 158 147 128 104 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.6 24.4 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.2 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 130 130 128 120 108 102 102 104 97 96 98 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 68 66 66 64 61 58 56 50 47 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 23 25 25 26 26 26 21 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 21 22 25 29 27 24 7 3 -3 -5 -12 200 MB DIV 105 63 50 42 45 25 51 -26 -36 -25 -25 -21 7 LAND (KM) 987 999 1043 1090 1138 1295 1428 1646 1813 1975 2224 1866 1505 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.5 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.9 115.2 116.3 117.5 120.2 122.4 125.1 127.6 130.1 133.8 137.2 140.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 15 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 8. -8. -17. -27. -38. -48.