* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP972012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 49 61 69 77 81 86 89 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 49 61 69 77 81 86 89 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 50 54 58 62 65 V (KT) G10R 23 22 25 25 25 25 29 30 32 39 42 45 43 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 1 2 2 5 1 1 6 7 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -2 5 -2 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 258 108 150 240 244 54 155 240 218 14 351 10 2 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 156 157 156 157 156 153 148 141 136 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 69 69 70 65 67 67 66 62 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 13 14 15 18 19 21 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 28 23 10 2 2 0 0 -2 24 40 52 200 MB DIV 48 36 42 52 33 16 17 63 93 78 97 23 12 LAND (KM) 567 593 700 722 766 827 887 893 946 932 1003 947 960 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.9 10.9 11.8 13.2 14.3 15.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.6 96.1 97.3 98.6 101.1 104.1 106.7 109.1 110.9 112.9 114.3 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 15 15 13 11 11 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 24. 36. 44. 52. 56. 61. 64. 62.