* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 89 86 79 66 51 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 91 89 86 79 66 51 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 89 83 77 68 60 52 44 38 33 28 25 V (KT) G00R 54 52 59 51 51 45 42 38 32 33 29 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 8 4 8 11 11 10 19 18 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 4 8 8 8 8 9 4 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 157 130 121 104 115 142 167 165 189 170 200 212 208 SST (C) 26.4 25.8 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.7 24.4 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 113 111 108 111 109 103 106 109 112 112 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 54 51 50 47 44 39 35 35 31 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 31 31 31 28 27 24 21 19 17 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 1 1 3 10 3 8 13 14 7 18 14 200 MB DIV 57 42 4 -15 0 -41 -54 -35 -30 -20 -9 -17 -24 LAND (KM) 1418 1467 1529 1631 1743 1981 2186 2118 1821 1528 1253 966 714 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.8 15.6 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.6 122.9 124.4 126.0 129.0 131.8 135.2 138.1 141.0 143.7 146.7 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 15 15 14 15 16 14 13 14 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -24. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -11. -24. -39. -55. -68. -76. -86. -93. -99.