* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP052012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 54 62 80 93 100 100 92 88 80 70 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 54 62 80 93 100 100 92 88 80 70 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 50 56 71 84 90 89 82 74 64 55 V (KT) G00R 26 29 30 30 34 37 42 45 48 44 44 41 38 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 6 10 10 13 13 11 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 187 110 65 107 107 17 333 333 265 297 277 252 220 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.4 26.7 26.3 25.3 24.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 150 144 140 138 131 127 116 105 93 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 71 70 70 67 64 57 52 49 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 18 19 22 26 27 29 27 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 6 11 10 12 40 52 80 75 77 71 73 200 MB DIV 24 34 65 101 105 108 111 68 56 7 1 -8 -12 LAND (KM) 795 827 833 859 885 922 977 1020 1024 1053 1128 1235 1420 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.9 105.3 106.6 107.8 109.7 111.6 113.1 115.2 116.9 119.0 121.2 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 18. 18. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 19. 27. 45. 58. 65. 65. 57. 53. 45. 35.