* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP052012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 50 60 74 83 86 86 83 76 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 50 60 74 83 86 86 83 76 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 51 60 70 80 87 88 84 74 63 V (KT) G01R 35 29 22 26 25 26 31 37 39 39 37 39 29 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 4 6 11 10 8 9 9 10 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -2 -1 0 -7 -2 -3 -1 -4 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 186 179 155 113 129 128 83 40 352 347 325 346 292 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.6 25.6 24.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 153 149 142 141 136 131 129 119 106 92 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 69 69 70 67 64 60 58 53 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 13 13 13 15 18 20 21 23 22 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -9 -17 -18 -17 -16 -5 3 41 45 44 45 23 200 MB DIV 5 2 31 35 41 60 49 48 53 36 25 14 -13 LAND (KM) 810 829 846 896 967 991 1066 1098 1090 1123 1128 1167 1213 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.2 11.5 12.5 13.3 13.9 14.9 15.5 16.6 17.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 104.4 105.9 107.3 109.0 110.9 112.7 114.3 116.0 117.3 118.7 120.3 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 15 15 9 10 9 8 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 25. 39. 48. 51. 51. 48. 41. 30.