* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP042012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 89 86 80 67 53 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 91 89 86 80 67 53 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 87 80 75 65 59 52 46 40 36 31 26 V (KT) G05R 57 55 53 52 48 47 41 41 35 36 35 32 32 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 6 5 6 7 10 21 25 20 37 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 2 4 4 7 1 0 -3 7 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 182 173 115 90 103 106 163 132 139 151 103 83 78 SST (C) 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.6 24.1 23.5 23.6 24.0 24.5 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 112 108 105 110 106 100 101 106 110 114 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 55 52 50 48 42 38 37 36 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 31 31 29 27 24 22 19 16 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 8 9 7 5 1 0 5 0 -12 -19 -11 200 MB DIV 67 45 14 4 14 -10 -21 -22 -6 -9 -13 2 41 LAND (KM) 1425 1466 1513 1625 1747 1965 2191 2053 1648 1275 841 458 66 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.3 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 123.0 124.6 126.2 129.2 132.2 135.6 139.4 142.9 146.9 150.5 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 16 15 14 15 18 17 19 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -35. -42. -47. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -10. -23. -37. -50. -64. -75. -83. -93.-104.