* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP052012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 47 58 69 85 96 99 99 92 87 78 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 47 58 69 85 96 99 99 92 87 78 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 46 50 59 66 70 70 67 61 53 44 V (KT) G08R 22 37 42 49 52 58 58 56 54 60 51 53 44 SHEAR (KT) 7 2 2 4 3 4 10 7 9 11 9 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -6 -3 2 0 6 3 6 SHEAR DIR 267 284 292 48 62 291 287 286 294 260 252 282 246 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.0 23.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 156 154 146 140 137 131 123 113 99 84 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -50.9 -51.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 71 75 72 69 68 67 66 65 62 57 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 21 26 29 30 34 36 36 37 37 36 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 34 34 23 36 62 68 82 98 89 95 92 200 MB DIV 1 65 168 213 164 114 122 31 85 28 -12 -10 18 LAND (KM) 781 809 834 774 771 793 893 957 889 924 945 1029 1171 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.5 12.1 13.4 14.1 14.7 16.0 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.5 104.5 105.4 106.6 109.1 111.3 112.8 114.3 115.9 117.5 119.9 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 13 9 8 10 8 10 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 5. 10. 14. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 31. 27. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 12. 23. 34. 50. 61. 64. 64. 57. 52. 43. 29.