* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP052012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 49 56 73 84 89 88 85 80 73 62 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 49 56 73 84 89 88 85 80 73 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 52 63 76 85 86 83 79 70 61 V (KT) G09R 26 26 28 28 30 32 37 37 41 37 37 33 26 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 2 1 8 8 6 9 9 12 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 1 3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 219 243 20 76 77 26 348 349 340 337 338 328 292 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.6 26.4 25.4 24.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 156 154 150 145 140 138 130 127 117 108 97 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 70 69 69 67 64 57 55 50 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 15 16 19 22 22 21 21 20 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 2 7 7 18 37 57 72 69 61 55 43 200 MB DIV 8 23 40 77 87 99 79 52 38 -3 3 -9 1 LAND (KM) 786 812 830 868 894 916 954 1027 1002 1077 1116 1222 1336 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.5 14.2 15.4 15.8 16.8 17.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 103.7 105.2 106.6 107.8 109.6 111.5 113.3 115.3 117.0 118.8 120.6 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 13 11 10 11 10 10 8 10 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 38. 49. 54. 53. 50. 45. 38. 27.