* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902012 07/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 27 33 38 52 67 78 81 81 78 76 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 33 38 52 67 78 81 81 78 76 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 38 43 46 45 42 39 V (KT) G01R 27 25 27 28 27 32 36 39 37 43 39 40 48 SHEAR (KT) 6 1 5 9 9 3 4 3 3 5 8 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -3 4 0 -1 1 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 207 88 76 99 110 54 18 52 194 258 249 210 52 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 147 144 146 140 132 132 128 127 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 70 70 70 70 70 66 68 67 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 17 20 22 23 26 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 22 16 7 2 15 8 4 9 1 -5 -9 200 MB DIV 63 84 67 60 68 64 139 71 72 40 21 17 -3 LAND (KM) 1151 1137 1182 1266 1335 1413 1577 1711 1810 1971 2136 2276 2291 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.8 11.6 11.9 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.8 111.8 113.1 114.2 116.5 119.0 121.3 123.7 126.1 128.6 131.0 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 13 12 11 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 18. 18. 22. 23. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 18. 32. 47. 58. 61. 61. 58. 56. 52.