* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902012 07/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 29 33 44 55 63 66 68 69 68 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 29 33 44 55 63 66 68 69 68 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 34 38 42 45 45 45 V (KT) G08R 38 27 27 30 28 32 34 39 33 35 38 37 35 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 8 8 3 7 7 3 3 6 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 227 235 81 100 120 104 93 97 128 329 306 314 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 148 149 146 143 142 132 131 130 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 70 71 70 67 65 65 67 64 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 11 12 11 0 -5 -4 8 13 21 24 14 200 MB DIV 56 51 41 71 89 76 75 61 58 57 56 33 11 LAND (KM) 1150 1186 1216 1244 1293 1375 1433 1575 1740 1910 2067 2269 2423 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.9 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.5 111.2 111.8 112.9 114.8 117.4 120.0 122.8 125.2 127.5 129.9 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 9 11 11 12 14 13 11 12 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 13. 24. 35. 43. 46. 48. 49. 48. 43.