* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP912012 07/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 35 36 38 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 35 36 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 19 16 15 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 10 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 8 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 236 227 235 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 149 151 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 16 23 4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -1 -5 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1056 1157 1323 1557 1730 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.0 12.9 10.8 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.7 116.8 117.4 117.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 18 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14.