* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL062012 08/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 33 32 33 36 39 42 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 28 28 30 27 23 20 20 19 17 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 21 23 19 18 17 20 16 9 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 2 -1 -4 -6 -1 7 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 208 212 231 247 275 278 280 290 195 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 131 130 128 126 124 117 116 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 130 128 122 118 116 108 111 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 71 71 68 65 64 59 52 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -27 -23 -16 -5 17 38 44 63 51 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 47 33 51 43 34 -14 -20 -9 8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 507 558 631 705 825 1027 1161 1256 1347 1517 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 21.2 21.8 22.7 23.7 25.0 27.0 28.2 29.2 30.0 31.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 8 6 7 5 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15.