* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL062012 08/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 50 53 55 59 63 67 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 50 53 55 59 63 67 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 36 38 42 46 51 58 69 81 V (KT) G06R 16 22 27 26 22 25 23 25 28 28 30 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 14 12 16 18 10 5 4 7 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 2 2 -7 -9 1 5 9 11 3 1 SHEAR DIR 229 204 203 230 250 273 279 247 233 120 31 62 52 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 128 131 133 129 127 125 123 121 120 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 124 132 135 125 120 119 120 120 118 125 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 78 80 77 74 74 66 66 61 60 57 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 -1 5 22 45 76 71 78 85 77 73 52 200 MB DIV 87 66 41 39 56 16 26 -21 -3 0 -2 -15 -12 LAND (KM) 533 543 527 546 599 845 1032 1181 1409 1818 2049 1779 1573 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.7 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.7 22.7 25.2 27.1 28.5 30.6 34.3 37.7 42.0 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 7 13 15 10 8 9 15 19 17 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40.