* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL082012 08/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 41 46 51 55 59 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 41 46 51 55 59 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 18 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 240 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 75 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -18 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1771 1977 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.2 34.0 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41.