* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP082012 08/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 54 58 61 57 54 44 29 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 54 58 61 57 54 44 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 37 39 40 38 34 28 V (KT) G03R 37 30 32 32 34 35 34 34 37 34 37 34 29 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 19 24 22 15 10 8 13 9 11 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 6 3 0 6 7 2 0 7 7 3 7 SHEAR DIR 283 262 256 263 270 239 220 288 322 332 317 324 334 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.5 25.5 23.7 21.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 149 148 146 144 137 127 117 100 81 72 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 72 70 69 65 62 58 58 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 16 18 20 22 24 25 26 26 27 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 55 35 31 49 61 81 109 113 107 93 94 55 41 200 MB DIV 51 38 54 59 66 58 57 12 14 -19 -4 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 283 400 491 565 619 684 635 652 693 727 748 833 933 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.6 17.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.6 20.7 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.8 109.7 110.2 110.6 111.5 112.3 113.9 115.3 116.6 118.1 119.9 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 5 4 7 8 7 7 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 21. 17. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 15. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 22. 19. 9. -6.