* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP952012 08/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 29 27 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 29 27 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 16 14 13 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 194 201 217 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.7 16.5 7.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 149 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 78 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 26 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 73 42 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 146 143 112 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.2 91.5 92.0 92.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -17.