* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL082012 08/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 46 51 56 61 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 46 51 56 61 65 69 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 20 18 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 265 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 94 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -9 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1391 1740 2047 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.2 33.6 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 44. 47.