* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP082012 08/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 19 16 16 15 14 16 13 12 10 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 16 14 17 19 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 -1 0 2 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 309 311 311 292 286 277 267 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.8 24.9 24.0 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 125 124 118 110 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 73 70 71 63 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 98 97 85 60 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 52 42 31 18 2 -11 -5 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 724 701 694 679 617 590 592 559 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.4 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.6 116.0 116.2 116.4 116.6 117.0 117.5 117.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 4 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -31. -36. -40. -41. -41.