* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP082012 08/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 20 18 17 17 16 17 11 12 10 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 15 15 20 19 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 -1 0 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 305 310 299 276 271 278 268 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.3 23.9 23.2 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 127 126 115 100 91 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 5 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 69 70 66 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 143 126 111 105 88 55 52 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 28 27 25 2 5 10 5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 698 693 665 650 597 481 410 327 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.6 19.8 20.5 22.1 23.8 24.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.3 115.5 115.6 115.8 116.0 116.2 116.2 115.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 8 8 7 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -22. -32. -36. -40. -40. -40.