* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP082012 08/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 23 17 16 18 15 16 14 12 11 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 18 16 17 18 22 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 3 1 0 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 294 309 317 309 296 285 260 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.6 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 120 116 110 104 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 70 70 68 67 66 60 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 126 122 114 88 67 47 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 26 28 5 10 9 19 10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 738 740 749 773 800 807 772 740 597 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.7 20.1 20.6 20.7 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.3 118.0 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -27. -38. -42. -46. -47. -48.