* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP082012 08/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 28 30 30 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 28 30 30 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 18 24 29 25 28 26 20 16 16 15 16 14 13 SHEAR (KT) 16 11 9 11 15 14 13 5 13 19 20 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 8 6 1 3 2 6 0 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 307 326 298 293 269 272 293 275 281 289 322 348 346 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.1 23.6 22.1 21.1 20.2 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 127 120 113 97 82 71 61 62 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 72 73 71 71 69 65 61 55 49 42 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 18 20 21 20 18 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 94 102 127 133 118 88 73 43 33 12 8 7 5 200 MB DIV 87 98 94 75 43 -6 -5 -20 11 6 -21 -7 2 LAND (KM) 714 783 791 787 792 773 742 784 866 970 1054 1179 1184 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.4 22.8 23.6 24.2 24.1 23.7 23.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.1 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.9 119.9 121.3 122.7 123.8 124.5 125.6 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 6 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 5. 5. 2. -8. -18. -29. -40. -51. -59. -65.