* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL092012 08/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 50 57 65 73 81 87 95 101 104 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 50 57 65 73 81 87 95 101 104 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 45 51 60 71 75 91 106 111 V (KT) G01R 30 29 27 31 33 33 27 30 34 33 35 36 35 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 17 14 16 7 13 7 7 15 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 4 5 1 -3 -1 -3 1 -4 3 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 232 193 184 174 163 165 213 163 53 74 29 18 24 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 149 151 157 152 150 150 155 157 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 143 144 146 161 144 144 143 148 146 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 700-500 MB RH 66 63 67 71 68 63 63 62 62 62 64 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 20 20 19 18 17 17 17 20 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 81 73 84 93 91 88 95 82 73 76 73 74 64 200 MB DIV 20 60 84 100 89 69 61 42 28 49 90 75 56 LAND (KM) 811 713 645 617 643 310 69 31 24 122 201 222 278 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.2 17.5 18.3 19.9 21.0 22.5 23.7 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.3 57.5 58.5 59.5 63.0 65.5 67.5 69.7 73.0 74.5 76.7 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 19 10 13 13 14 11 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 30. 38. 46. 52. 60. 66. 69.