* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL092012 08/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 71 79 85 88 96 102 107 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 61 58 48 51 59 65 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 50 56 55 41 49 63 81 94 V (KT) G02R 30 29 32 37 36 37 42 49 40 38 39 46 51 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 10 9 15 8 13 8 9 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 5 8 2 0 2 4 6 0 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 246 178 160 144 120 146 107 120 57 70 56 51 20 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 26.9 10.1 26.7 28.8 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 150 152 154 154 152 125 64 121 148 158 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 150 151 155 151 148 119 63 111 135 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 14 13 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 69 67 65 61 57 59 60 64 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 19 23 22 23 21 24 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR 81 71 60 55 50 47 44 43 58 52 72 68 79 200 MB DIV 78 97 80 67 58 44 59 37 50 56 88 65 77 LAND (KM) 811 706 639 635 556 226 -13 -13 0 83 114 166 241 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.8 23.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.5 57.8 59.3 60.7 63.8 66.5 69.2 71.6 73.6 74.8 76.6 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 16 13 14 14 10 10 9 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 19. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 1. 2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 36. 44. 50. 53. 61. 67. 72.