* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL092012 08/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 56 61 71 81 90 98 103 112 116 117 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 56 61 71 60 67 75 79 89 92 91 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 49 55 54 60 62 57 73 94 71 V (KT) G06R 26 32 41 40 42 56 41 41 42 44 46 53 50 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 10 9 5 9 6 10 12 6 3 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 0 4 3 -2 -1 -1 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 352 206 208 228 247 166 9 69 32 153 82 125 59 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.2 26.1 19.6 9.2 29.1 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 144 143 143 128 115 78 63 153 153 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 152 145 142 138 137 123 105 73 62 138 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -50.5 -50.5 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 15 15 14 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 62 66 58 61 63 63 63 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 23 27 29 28 29 30 27 30 31 35 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 59 76 78 83 88 96 100 101 113 113 123 110 109 200 MB DIV 127 133 122 94 46 34 120 66 86 55 63 3 5 LAND (KM) 490 384 295 222 248 189 -23 19 38 32 135 74 31 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 15.9 16.6 18.7 19.9 21.4 22.1 23.6 24.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 64.1 65.2 66.7 68.0 69.7 72.1 74.2 75.7 77.5 78.7 80.3 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 20 15 13 14 11 11 15 10 10 9 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):268/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 14. 13. 14. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 31. 41. 50. 58. 63. 72. 76. 77.