* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL102012 08/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 58 68 75 80 82 85 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 58 68 75 80 82 85 86 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 58 67 78 87 89 82 V (KT) G06R 34 28 32 35 32 34 29 32 32 33 29 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 8 11 12 18 7 5 19 30 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 7 11 11 13 2 3 0 0 -10 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 63 71 60 18 5 30 47 62 28 167 153 104 78 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 135 133 135 137 146 154 163 160 151 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 136 131 127 133 135 144 151 161 149 135 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 13 12 12 14 13 14 13 13 13 11 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 51 50 51 51 54 52 53 55 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 18 17 16 13 14 12 12 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 83 64 59 58 53 43 26 8 -22 -59 -77 -78 -82 200 MB DIV -17 38 53 69 72 13 16 18 -13 -25 -17 32 53 LAND (KM) 1711 1632 1591 1564 1546 1539 1513 1358 1093 1040 1257 1177 970 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.8 22.7 25.9 29.3 33.1 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 40.2 41.7 43.0 43.8 46.2 49.6 53.0 56.2 59.7 62.2 62.6 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 12 10 16 18 19 20 23 19 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 28. 38. 45. 50. 52. 55. 56.