* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL102012 08/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 51 56 62 65 69 72 77 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 51 56 62 65 69 72 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 42 46 49 54 60 69 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 31 29 34 34 35 33 32 30 27 25 21 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 6 9 11 15 18 26 19 14 12 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 13 14 9 0 3 0 3 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 50 14 357 4 37 2 329 294 175 138 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 135 133 133 136 140 147 157 162 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 135 131 131 135 137 144 150 154 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 13 12 12 12 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 50 49 51 51 56 53 55 58 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 18 17 14 15 12 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 37 35 27 28 -4 -4 -27 -22 -27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 81 75 65 26 -3 25 -2 -35 -17 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1695 1647 1656 1663 1654 1696 1617 1330 1193 1178 1246 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.2 15.4 16.4 17.3 19.3 21.2 23.6 25.7 28.1 29.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.2 41.5 42.7 44.0 46.8 50.3 54.2 57.2 61.1 64.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 16 19 19 20 19 20 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 21. 26. 32. 35. 39. 42. 47. 51.