* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL112012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 88 89 87 83 75 64 54 49 45 42 V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 88 89 87 83 75 64 54 49 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 89 89 87 82 77 69 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 52 48 49 55 46 52 50 50 41 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 2 4 9 10 27 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 6 1 0 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 78 38 40 31 111 46 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.7 25.6 22.3 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 138 132 124 115 95 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 122 122 116 111 102 88 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 50 50 51 56 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 15 17 18 19 17 18 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -71 -63 -64 -77 -102 -54 52 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -1 29 28 16 26 22 56 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1920 1909 1796 1654 1494 1246 1045 1017 1490 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.9 33.4 36.1 39.5 44.1 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.8 51.2 51.0 50.5 48.2 44.7 40.6 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 20 23 33 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):326/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -27. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -5. -16. -26. -31. -35. -38.