* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL112012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 88 89 87 84 76 65 46 32 27 24 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 88 89 87 84 76 65 46 32 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 88 87 86 82 77 71 59 47 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 50 45 48 50 51 47 45 51 41 34 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 1 3 8 14 21 40 46 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 9 6 5 4 -1 6 3 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 62 49 271 242 152 81 38 35 47 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.8 25.9 23.2 17.5 15.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 132 124 116 99 81 77 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 121 119 117 108 101 91 77 74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 16 15 15 15 12 11 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 53 53 55 56 50 42 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 21 20 19 18 20 17 18 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -70 -64 -65 -86 -93 -43 52 -2 -52 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -5 32 32 18 28 32 35 38 28 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1926 1913 1805 1667 1563 1320 1185 1048 1340 1004 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.9 33.0 35.9 38.4 42.8 48.3 53.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.5 50.2 49.8 48.8 46.5 44.0 41.0 34.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 16 16 19 31 39 37 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):326/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -7. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. -4. -15. -34. -48. -53. -55.