* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL112012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 88 88 85 81 73 61 46 40 36 32 V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 88 88 85 81 73 61 46 40 36 32 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 89 89 88 82 76 66 53 44 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 54 45 49 52 46 49 47 46 43 37 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 6 5 13 18 29 41 53 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 7 5 1 3 3 5 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 158 79 132 145 75 40 35 42 48 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.2 21.2 16.4 14.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 137 132 125 112 91 79 77 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 122 120 116 111 101 85 76 74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 48 49 47 53 54 47 45 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 17 18 19 19 18 20 20 20 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -60 -55 -52 -68 -107 -34 41 20 102 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 21 35 24 15 39 59 35 40 72 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1920 1898 1787 1644 1494 1164 926 1015 1471 641 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.7 30.7 32.0 33.4 36.7 40.5 45.1 50.0 55.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.8 51.0 50.8 50.5 48.8 45.3 40.1 31.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 14 15 21 26 34 43 43 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):326/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -16. -23. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -7. -19. -34. -40. -44. -48.