* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL122012 09/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 63 67 73 77 84 88 93 92 89 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 63 67 73 77 84 88 93 92 89 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 58 60 61 62 64 68 72 76 80 V (KT) G00R 44 44 45 48 51 52 62 63 68 66 73 69 75 SHEAR (KT) 21 25 25 17 18 23 15 17 9 4 1 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 4 3 5 3 5 3 13 6 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 124 124 123 116 101 117 103 109 66 121 347 354 18 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 160 160 160 160 161 161 159 155 151 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 136 133 133 133 133 135 135 136 133 132 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -51.6 -50.8 -50.1 -48.9 -48.1 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 55 53 53 51 49 49 49 46 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 45 47 49 49 48 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -33 -36 -24 -23 -30 -5 5 28 40 40 59 89 200 MB DIV 40 24 25 44 38 38 69 52 36 74 106 40 17 LAND (KM) 822 844 867 885 902 937 989 969 1037 1133 1256 1152 885 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.9 26.8 27.5 28.5 30.2 32.2 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.7 63.0 63.1 62.8 62.7 62.7 63.1 63.2 63.7 64.0 64.1 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 7 9 13 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 22. 29. 33. 38. 37. 34.