* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 09/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 28 34 41 45 46 49 51 54 55 57 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 27 34 40 44 45 49 50 53 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 9 17 18 21 19 19 16 18 16 20 17 22 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 22 23 21 19 23 14 14 12 16 7 0 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 -3 2 -2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 198 188 196 198 188 184 168 172 179 193 235 99 N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A 19.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A 74 138 138 143 145 149 148 145 143 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A 68 116 116 120 120 125 126 122 125 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 12 11 15 16 12 16 13 16 12 14 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 47 49 47 49 47 49 47 51 56 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -45 -47 -23 -42 -43 -58 -62 -65 -31 3 35 N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -12 -14 10 -21 -2 -17 -24 -24 33 4 11 N/A LAND (KM) -188 -91 -25 40 106 169 212 208 243 202 209 200 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 31.3 30.7 30.1 29.5 28.7 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.8 87.6 87.7 88.3 88.6 89.0 88.0 86.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 6 6 5 4 2 3 5 5 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):178/ 11 CX,CY: 0/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -5. -1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 2. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 8. 14. 21. 25. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 37.