* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL122012 09/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 57 58 60 64 67 72 76 81 82 84 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 57 58 60 64 67 72 76 81 82 84 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 60 62 66 71 75 79 V (KT) G06R 45 42 39 42 43 43 43 46 45 54 57 54 53 SHEAR (KT) 23 32 27 19 19 20 17 19 11 12 7 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 1 3 3 7 1 1 2 6 3 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 121 132 139 129 116 121 106 107 71 104 106 98 59 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 160 159 159 159 161 159 162 161 155 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 133 132 132 132 136 132 138 138 134 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 -51.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 15 13 14 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 54 52 53 52 51 50 49 45 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 22 22 23 24 26 27 30 33 35 38 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -66 -63 -45 -44 -39 -18 -3 4 11 -1 15 44 200 MB DIV 24 -14 -4 26 15 26 41 36 14 37 52 43 73 LAND (KM) 822 848 867 881 895 910 899 895 899 949 1091 1240 1156 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.9 28.2 29.9 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.7 63.0 63.2 63.1 63.2 63.2 63.7 64.1 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 5 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 26. 27. 29.