* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL122012 09/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 54 56 58 61 64 66 69 71 71 67 58 V (KT) LAND 55 53 54 56 58 61 64 66 69 71 71 67 58 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 51 52 52 54 55 56 59 65 67 62 49 V (KT) G09R 45 45 47 53 53 60 58 64 65 58 61 70 66 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 2 4 7 10 6 16 11 19 26 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 11 10 15 10 3 -7 0 0 4 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 52 57 286 329 41 31 102 120 135 90 43 27 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.7 25.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 138 138 134 131 132 130 123 112 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 116 117 116 117 111 108 110 110 108 97 77 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -49.5 -49.4 -48.1 -48.4 -47.8 -47.2 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 14 13 10 3 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 48 47 45 44 47 52 58 62 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 35 35 37 39 39 44 44 45 43 46 51 53 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 4 20 31 37 54 72 137 178 167 140 111 200 MB DIV 32 18 38 56 52 58 22 21 -1 41 97 87 47 LAND (KM) 1055 1062 1094 1153 1202 1326 1439 1396 1345 1242 1061 686 401 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.6 30.7 31.5 32.2 33.5 36.0 39.9 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.2 61.8 61.7 61.5 61.2 61.2 60.7 60.0 59.1 57.7 56.8 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 5 7 4 4 6 10 17 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):353/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 12. 3.