* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL142012 09/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 46 52 56 61 67 76 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 46 52 56 61 67 76 83 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 29 32 36 43 54 67 V (KT) G09R 12 15 15 15 14 16 22 24 22 25 27 25 33 SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 15 13 11 18 22 8 11 10 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 1 2 1 3 -4 0 0 -3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 257 240 234 240 240 205 241 232 214 172 168 322 31 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 141 141 140 134 136 132 132 135 141 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 142 140 140 133 144 126 132 140 151 140 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 11 13 11 12 13 12 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 70 70 66 76 69 65 61 59 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 13 15 12 10 9 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 102 101 102 109 127 122 113 114 61 27 -11 200 MB DIV 25 32 39 47 35 44 78 50 26 23 22 20 42 LAND (KM) 248 347 472 617 738 1031 1602 1757 1910 1942 1901 1771 1722 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.8 13.4 13.9 15.5 17.3 19.6 21.5 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 19.1 20.2 21.6 23.1 24.2 27.1 32.2 33.7 35.2 39.7 43.3 48.7 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 13 14 14 23 8 16 24 29 19 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 26. 32. 36. 41. 47. 56. 63.